International Relations

Global Order Dynamics

Why global order is not fair & representative?

• Unequal representation
• Institutional bias
• Marginalization of global south
• Ineffective Multilateralism
• Climate change inequalities
• Tech/knowledge divide

• USA: 16.49% IMF votes, despite having only 4.22% population
• global north has 9x voting power in IMF
• USA exited Paris Pact, WHO unilaterally
• SWIFT sanction on Russia

Way forward

• inclusive multilateralism
• decolonize multilateralism
• implement Rio Declaration
• bridge digital divide, tech dividie
• climate justice: CBDR
• Plurilateralism
  • I2U2, IMEC

Global South

Definition

Technically and socially less developed countries, located primarily in southern hemisphere.

Brandt Report

Proposed division b/w north & south countries based on parameters - GDP, tech advancement etc.

Aspects

how is global south reshaping world order

• multilateral reforms (WTO, UNSC)
• economic growth: 40% world trade (UNCTAD)
• critical minerals (Lithium trianngle, DRC)
• Alt institutions (NDB, CRA)
• demographic dividend
• Assertive diplomacy
  • eg. Loss & Damage fund

India’s engagement?

• economic cooperation in pharma, telecom
• developmental assistance
  • Pan Africa E Network (aka E-VidyaBharati Aarogya Bharati: e-VBAB)
• multilateral: ISA, CDRI
• diplomatic bridge for global south to global institutions
  • eg. inclusion of African Union in G20 under India’s leadership
• intellectual leadership: DAKSHIN (global south center of excellence)

Challenges?

• global south is vague term
• fragmented interests
• debt distress
• geopolitical tensions
• implementation gaps in reform

India is adopting alternative to conventional aid. It is following development cooperation model, to provide aid to demands of global south countries.

• capacity building
• prioritizing vulnerable states
• respecting sovereignty
• cost effective solution
• non conditional support - vaccine maitri

Multilateralism is weakening

Definition

coordinated action among atleast 3 actors to address common problems, beyond individual capacity

Aspects

Erosion of multilateralim?

• global orgs not effective
• failure in resolving conflicts eg. UN hasn’t resolved russia ukraine tussle
• minilateralism eg. BRICS, RCEP
• withdrawal from global framewark eg. US withdrew from >60 ontl orgs (WHO, UNESCO, UNHRC)
• neo royalism
• neo feudalism

”Third Path” framework for reformed multilateralism

What is Third Path

• also called Carney Doctrine, as given by Canadian PM Mark Carney, at speech at WEF, Jan 2026
• middle power cooperation
• value based realism
• issue based coalition among like minded states

What are middle powers?

countries that don’t dominate intl system but posess significant diplomatic / economic / tech / normative influence

• eg. India, Canada, Australia, Japan

Multilateralism in Outer Space Governance

Why multilateralism needed in outer space governance?

• militarization threat (due use tech)
• geopolitical fragmentation
• transition from “space exploration” to sustained presence eg. Chinese Intl. Lunar Research Station

Pax Americana decline

What is Pax Americana

The global world order after WW2, called Pax Americana.

USA historically championed liberal democracy, open market, multilateralism, economic growth, security.

But, in recent years, USA has stepped away from this ledaership role and is focusing increasingly on its own interests.

• can give china a greater role in geopolitics
• India’s can claim strategic autonomy ind fill the leadership vacuum

Use Pax Americana concept as a point in other answers.

G2 Engagement

What is G2?

China + USA presidential meeting

Implications of G2 monopoly?

• China is USA’s biggest competitor
  • acknowledges china’s equality to USA
• economic leverage for china (rare earth)
• strengthen china’s bargaining power
• eroding security guarantees in East Asia by USA (eg. to Taiwan)
• straining / uncertainty to Indo-Pacific cooperation eg. QUAD summit postponement

What should India do?

• preserve strategic autonomy thru multilateral orgs, trade deals etc
• diversify economic / security partnerships
• deepen collab with like minded regional / global partners eg ASEAN
• deepen defence ties with France, Japan etc to resist G2 duopoly

Energy Security

Why do we care?

• high dependence on shipments from gulf
  • 85% crude oil
  • 50% natural gas
  • 25% coal
• tariffs
• Oil price inflation
• recent supply chain disruption (st. of hormuz)
• ripple effect - fertilizer, food inflation, rural access to clean fuel

India’s foreign policy initiatives

• global leadership: ISA, One Sun One World One Grid
• Diversification (27 $\to$ 40 countries)
• strategic autonomy: balance imports from Russia, Mid East, USA
• Overseas assets: owned by ONGC, PSU, in 22 countries
• alt energy sources
  • National Green Hydrogen Mission
  • Strategic Petroleum Reserves

Maritime chokepoints

What are chokepoints

Narrow, strategically important maritime passages, crucial for global trade.

Significance

• trade, energy artery
• Economic impacts (fuel inflation, economic dependency straining)
• geopolitical flash-points
  • military blockade
  • regional conflict
  • piracy
• climate change risk - drought in panama canal
• Industrial, digital risks
  • 90% europe asia sub-sea cable runs thru red sea

International Atomic Energy Agency

Work

• peaceful use of nuclear energy
• food safety
• cancer control
• sustainable development

Significance of IAEA

• preventing proliferation
  • global nuclear wotchdog
  • safety inspection, compliance
• promoting peaceful use of nuclear energy
  • electricity
  • decarbonization
• strengthen nuclear safety, security
• nuclear diplomacy

Challenges

• geopolitical rivalries (Iran)
• limited power (can’t enforce without UNSC)
• doesn’t regulate emerging tech
• nuclear security threats
  • eg. attack on facilities in conflict ones
• verification gaps in accessing attacks on nuclear sites

Reforms needed

• institutional: funding, realtime satellite AI monitoring
• governance
  • better integration with climate bodies
• tech
• transparency, accountability

4C Pillars of Indian Diaspora Policy

• Care
  • pravasi bhartiya bima yojna
  • MADAD portal
  • Migration & Mobility agreement
• Connect
  • Pravasi Bhartiya Diwas
  • Know India Programme
• Celebrate
  • Pravasi Bhartiya Samman Award
  • Girmitiya Engagement
• Contribute
  • Knowledge initiatives to link global indian experts with indian institutions eg. PRABHASS

India Brazil South Africa (IBSA) Dialogue

• founded 2003, via Brazillia Declaration
• IBSA Trust Fund 2004 for LDC
  • fund manager: UN office for South South Cooperation
• IBSA-MAR: maritime exercise

25th SCO Summit

Key outcomes

• SCO Anti Drug & Security Threat Centers
• Global Governance Initiative
• SCO Development Bank + Credit Mechanism (non dollar alternative)
• BeiDou for SCO members as GPS alternative
• India proposed Civilizational Dialogue Forum

India’s opportunities in SCO

• outreach to central asian republics (CAR)
  • Connect Central Asia Policy
• Uranium from Kazakhstan (energy security)
• INSTC - connectivity boost
• engages china & pakistan on same platform : diplomacy channel

India’s concerns regd. SCO

• china’s dominance
  • india not aligned with BRI
• expansion to new countries like Belarus, dilute india’s Central Asian focus
• Weak implementation of decisions
• anti west image

How india balances strategic autonomy within SCO?

• national interest first - opposed BRI
• principled participation eg. active in RATS
• development focus
  • SCO Sub Group on Cooperation in Traditional Medicine and Startups and Innovation
• Leverage close relationship with Russia

Role of SCO in reshaping global multilateral order

• strategic presence (80% Eurasia, 42% population)
• 25% global GDP
• challenging west led forums
• security: Afghanistan Contact Group 2005

QUAD

New Initiatives

• QUAD Critical Minerals Initiative Framework
• IPMSC
• Indo Pacific Energy Security
• Indo Pacific Connectivity

Significance to india

• strategic: 50% maritime / 60% GDP thru indo pacific
• balance against chinese encirclement
• maritime security, defence capability eg. Malabar Exercise 2024
• Boost Act East Policy
• positions india as preferred investment partner
  • reduce global dependence on china
• support tech cooperation, self reliance goals

Challenges in QUAD

• limited institutionalization : no secretariat, only summits
• bilateral issues: eg. India US tariff
• perceived cold war mentality (ASIAN NATO $\leftarrow$ as said by China)
• all 4 members have different priorities
• External distractions for USA: ukraine, iran
• new groups eg. SQUAD divert attention
• Failure to deliver promises eg. 800M COVID-19 Vaccine doses not delivered

India’s tensions with QUAD

• risk of escalating tensions with china
• compromise on india’s strategic autonomy
• alienation of key partners eg. Russia, Iran

Way Forward

• institutional strengthening : secretariat
• focus on regional prosperity
• work in complement to ASEAN, IORA etc
• expand partnership to more countries with shared priorities eg. Climate resilience, maritime security
• strategic ambiguity: prioritize non security areas to minimize direct confrontation with china

India is chairing both BRICS & QUAD in 2026

Strategic Benefits

• geopolitical leverage
• strategic autonomy eg. purchase russian oil
• global south leadership for LDC

Challenges in balancing

• China dilemma. QUAD opposes china, while BRICS has china as integral part
• geopolitical polarization due to wars
• de-dollarization push within BRICS

G20 Summit

Johannesburg Declaration

• debt sustainability: cost of capital commission
• UN Early Warnings for All Iniatiative
• Mission 300
• G20 Critical Minerals Framework
• Nelson Mandela Bay Target: reduce NEET rate by 5% by 2030
• Revised Brisbane-eThekwini Goal: cut gender gap in labour participation by 25% by 2030 (from 2012 levels)

India’s proposals at G20 2025

• critical minerals circularity initiative
• G20 initiative on countering the drug terror nexus
• open satellite data partnership
• G20 global healthcare response team
• G20 Africa skills multiplier
• G20 global traditional knowledge respository

G20 Limitations

• diverging interests, poor consensus (USA, china)
• absence of key leaders (eg. USA in 2025) weakens legitimacy
• non binding pledges
• ineffective framework

Indian Ocean Region

~36 Countries, 35% global population, 40% world coastline

Significance of IOR

• trade, economy
  • 95% of india’s trade by volume
  • 68% by value
• Blue economy potential: 2.4Msqkm EEZ with india
• strategic, geopolitical

Current dynamics of IOR

• 42% crude oil, petroleum products
  • hence critical
• militarization of IOR
  • USA: Diego Cracia
  • France: Reuinion, Mayotte
  • China: ports
• Critical infra
  • undersea communication lines fibre optic
• non traditional security threat
  • maritime terrorism
  • illegal fishing
  • climate change

India’s approach

• SAGAR, AHASAGAR
• Maritime Domain Awareness
  • IFC-IOR
• IORA, IPOI, BIMSTEC, IONS
• First responder in humantirian crises
• joint exercises eg. AIKEYME, Dosti, MILAN
• active engagement with quad partners

Way forward for India

• capability development- indian navy
• island development: andaman, nicobar
• maritime governance: UNCLOS
• diversify energy sources

Country relations

• Nepal
• Pakistan
• USA