- share deep rooted civilizational, historical, cultural and geographical ties
- from supporting liberation in 1971 to forging strategic economic & People centric partnerships, the relationship has matured into Sonali Adhyay
Significance
- geoestrategic: connectivity, security for NE
- coastal access via Chattogram, Mongla ports - regional logistics
- Act east, regional grouping
- bridge to SEA
- BBIN, BIMSTEC, Indo pacific strategies
- trade relations
- largest trade partner in S.Asia $14B in 2023-24
- preferential access under SAFTA & proposed CEPA
- tripartite electricity pact w/ Nepal
- connectivity
- 5 operational rail links; Akhaura - Agartala link launched in 2023
- inland waterways & coastal shipping agreements
- transit routes facilitate indian cargo to NE w/ no customs
- development of NE
- bangladesh ports for cargo movement to Tripura, meghalaya, Assam
- Blue economy cooperation
- joint exploration of marine resources, deep sea fishing, marine ecology
- humanitarian cooperation
- india supported bangladesh during Rohingya refugee crisis via Insaniyat initiative
Major irritants
- china influence: economic + defence ties
- migration & NRC-CAA fallout: pol tension in Assam, Bengal over undocumented migrants
- trade barriers: bangladesh accusses india of non tariff barriers
- concern over attack on hindu minorities in bangladesh
2024 Political crisis
- PM Sheikh Hasina ousted after 15 years, amid protest, election rigging, youth unrest
- rise in islamic extremism, calls for Sharia law from groups like Hefazat e Islam
Impact on India Bangladesh
- FTA talks uncertain, disruption in textile supply chains, delays in border infra
- pending dues to indian power firms eg. Adani’s Godda project
- delays in strategic projects: cross border railways, RITES coach supply, Maitree Super Thermal Plant
- Defence cooperation risk: $500 LOC projects under review
- 2023 bangladesh was india’s largest tourist source, but trend reversing
- anti india rhetoric - opposition parties blame indian interference, esp over Teesta
- China’s opportunism
Post Hasina developments 2024 onwards
- new PM Prof. Mohd. Yunus emphasizes minority rights, regional coop, India outreach
- +ve diplomatic signals eg. visit of Indian FS Vikram Misri
- Strong actions taken after violations against minorities post regime change
Strategic way forward
- Political/ diplomatic
- move beyond Hasina centric diplomacy
- engage Tarique Rahman’s BNP govt w/ Economic diplomacy & red lines on anti india militancy
- separate Hasina asylum friction from broader bureaucratic & economic ties
- use fishermen transgression, maritime governance cooperation to requild low friction bilateral trust
- ecological
- shift to climate resilient water sharing based on real time hydrological data - Ganges Treaty
- Padma - Farakka link: offer tech cooperation
- Economic
- CEPA Push: fasttrack CEPA
- reduce NTB
- textile integration
- energy & transit: preserve 2.4GW power supply & grid management
- Hard security
- fast track tunel infra in siliguri corridor
- deploy CIBMS w/ drones & thermal sensors to curb smuggling on non lethal border
- minority & intelligence watch: joint task force to monitor minority violence & counter Jamat e islami influence
2026 Dhaka reset, requires CEPA ganges treaty and pragmatic diplomacy to secure Act east & BoB security.