Pakistan
marked by deep rooted mistrust, historical disputes, terrorism, despite shared cultural & linguistic ties
points of contention: Kashmir, terrorism, border issues, disrupted trade
Issues
Issue Details Kashmir root of all wars; India seeks bilateral soln Pak seeks internationalization Siachen lack of agreement, failed talks in 1989 CPEC through PoK India opposes Sir Creek dispute over 92km creek India follows 1925 mid channel map Gilgit Baltistan Pak move to make it a province violates Indian claim on J&K
Strategic challenges
Challenge details Asymmetric warfare Pak relies on terror networks China pak nexus 2 front war risk; CPEC + Gwadar = strategic encirclement Trade suspension Revoked MFN status post pulwama; trade remain suspended
Pak’s economic crisis implication on India
may increase chinese influence in pak policies
may embolden anti india actions
strategic outcomes uncertain: china may restrain Pakistan to protect its CPEC investments
India must monitor evolving dynamics & engage global stakeholders
IWT
Criteria details Background 1960 via WB mediation Pak opposes Indian hydro project Suspension post pahalgham attack ”blood & water can’t flow together” Legal hurdles no unilateral exit allowed Article XII needs mutual consent Strategic impact may trigger drought / flood in Pak Infra gaps india underutilizes allotted storage future projects face delays eg. Kiru, Pakal Dul
Geopolitical consequences of IWT suspension
escalate indo pak tensions
provoke intl legal disputes
affect india’s future water negotiation w/ China, Bgldsh
inspire retaliatory moves eg. China restricting Hydrological data
Operation Sindoor
Criteria details Trigger Pahalgham attack linked to LeT objective Destroy terror infra in Pak & PoK execution joint army navy air force strike weapons SCALP, HAMMER, METEOR, BrahMos, Kamikaze drones, high precision arsenal Significance new deterrence policy: visible & forceful response to state backed terror
Way forward for India Pak
sustained dialogue, structured & conditional diploacy
zero tolerance for terror: no compromise on CBT
normalize trade to build interdependence
CBM: improve hotline use, military coordination
strategic watch: monitor regional alliances, leverage diplomacy with pakistan alliances
India pak relations reain locked in cycle of mistrust, terror & strategic rivalry. Long term peace depends on calibrated engagement, CBM, zero tolerance for terrorism.